empty
18.01.2023 08:03 AM
EUR/USD. Analysis for January 18, 2023

This image is no longer relevant

The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart is still quite compelling and getting more intricate, and the entire upward segment of the trend is still quite convoluted. Although its length is better suited for the pulse portion, it has taken on a powerful corrective and extended form. The waves a-b-c-d-e have been combined into a complicated corrective structure, with wave e having a form that is far more complex than the other waves. Since the peak of wave e is substantially higher than the peak of wave C, if the wave markings are accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished. I'm still planning for a decline in the instrument because we are predicted to build at least three waves down in this scenario. The demand for the euro currency increased throughout the first two weeks of the year, and during this time the instrument was only able to modestly deviate from previously established levels. A further attempt to surpass the 1.0721 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci ratio, was successful, allowing the wave e to grow even longer. Unfortunately, there is another delay in starting to build the trend correction part.

The euro may be supported by rate divergence up until the ECB meeting.

On Tuesday, the euro/dollar instrument had a 30 basis point decline. As a result of how small these price increases are, the current wave markup hardly changes at all. However, since the instrument's present motions are more horizontal in type and the news background is essentially nonexistent, I am unable to compare them to the instrument's current movements. Only the German inflation report might have been of interest to market players yesterday. The market was aware of the expected value because the second estimate was identical to the first. The decrease in the euro in the afternoon can be attributed to the German inflation report from the morning, but how can you account for the euro's rise in the morning? I think that the current news context shouldn't be used to explain the fluctuations of the euro. Other aspects form the basis of the market.

Since the ECB is 90% likely to hike rates by 50 basis points in February and the Fed by 25, the market has already determined, in my opinion, that there is a clear need to stimulate demand for the EU currency. As a result, for the first time in a long time, the difference between the ECB and Fed interest rates will be decreasing rather than widening. This element may encourage strong demand for the euro. If this is the case, then the response to the ECB rate hike in two weeks is already being seen. This factor may already be coming into play on the day of the European regulator's meeting, and we will observe a decline in the instrument. This decline may coincide with the completion of wave e, which has already taken on an overly extended form. If my assumption is correct, then wave 5-e is being built now. This means that the increase could break off at any time.

This image is no longer relevant

Conclusions in general

I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted Fibonacci level of 0.9994 (323.6%). The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The market will be ready to finish the wave e when a bid to break through the 1.0950 level fails.

The wave marking of the descending trend segment notably becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this portion is complete, work on the downward trend segment can start.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Analysis on May 22, 2025

For the GBP/USD pair, the wave structure continues to suggest the development of a bullish impulsive trend. The wave pattern is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February

Chin Zhao 18:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on May 21, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into a bullish structure and continues to remain so. I believe no one doubts that this transformation occurred solely

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-05-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on May 21, 2025

wave structure, largely driven by Donald Trump. The wave setup is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed the formation of a convincing corrective structure that

Chin Zhao 18:51 2025-05-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on May 20, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulsive wave structure, thanks to Donald Trump. The wave picture is almost identical to that

Chin Zhao 19:47 2025-05-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on May 20, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has transformed into a bullish one and continues to maintain that shape. I believe there is no doubt that this transformation occurred

Chin Zhao 19:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on May 19, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart has transformed into a bullish structure and remains as such. I believe there is no doubt that this transformation occurred solely

Chin Zhao 18:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Using Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and the US Dollar Index on May 19th

GBP/USD Analysis: Since April 8, GBP/USD has been moving upward on the price chart. From the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone, a counter-correction has been forming

Isabel Clark 11:43 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Using Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold on May 19th

EUR/USD Analysis: Since February, the EUR/USD chart has been forming an upward wave. Over the past month and a half, a corrective segment (B) has been developing within this wave

Isabel Clark 11:40 2025-05-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on May 16, 2025

The wave structure for the GBP/USD instrument continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulsive wave sequence. "Thanks" to Donald Trump, the wave pattern closely mirrors that of EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 18:43 2025-05-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on May 16, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has transformed into an upward one and continues to hold this formation. I believe there is little doubt that

Chin Zhao 18:40 2025-05-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.