Here are the details of the economic calendar from July 22:
The most important event for this week happened yesterday. This is the results of the planned meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), during which the regulator expectedly left the refinancing rate unchanged, namely at a zero level, and the deposit rate at 0.5%.
In addition, the ECB retained the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in connection with the pandemic for a total of 1.85 trillion euros.
There were no significant changes, including statements made during the meeting and at the press conference. The regulator expects further inflation growth, and the key interest rate will remain at the same level until it stabilizes at 2%.
During the US trading session, weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were published, where instead of the expected reduction in their volume, there was an increase.
Details of statistics:
- The volume of initial applications for benefits increased from 368 thousand to 419 thousand.
- The volume of repeated applications for benefits decreased from 3,265 thousand to 3,239 thousand, while the previous data was revised in favor of growth from 3,241 thousand to 3,265 thousand, and the forecast for the current figure was 3,100 thousand.
The US labor market indicators are not the best. They put pressure on the position of the US dollar during the publication, but after that, the interest in it leveled off.
* Applications for unemployment benefits reflect the number of currently unemployed citizens and those receiving unemployment benefits. This indicator is considered to be the state of the labor market, where the growth of the indicator negatively affects the level of consumption and economic growth. The reduction of applications for benefits has a positive effect on the labor market.
Analysis of trading charts from July 22:
The EUR/USD pair showed quite high activity, which resulted in both upward and downward price impulses. It is worth considering that amid all these, the quote did not move and it was not possible to break through the 1.1750/1.1830 zone.
The trading recommendation on July 22 considered the scenarios of acceleration in the market, but trading positions for buying or selling should have arisen if the price was held outside one or another border of the established range of 1.1750/1.1830, which did not happen.
Following the path of a technical correction from the variable pivot point represented by the level of 1.3571, the GBP/USD pair reached the interaction area of trade forces at 1.3750/1.3800, where there was a reduction in the volume of long positions and, as a result, stagnation.
To simply put it, traders saw a slowdown in the corrective move with a possible price reversal.
The trading recommendation on July 22 considered the scenario of a slowdown in the correction within the 1.3750/1.3800 area, where it was recommended to look for possible entry points to sell and refrain from buy positions.
July 23 economic calendar:
In terms of the economic calendar, the United Kingdom has already released its retail sales data, where theJune volume increased by 0.5%, which is quite good. However, they forecast an increase of 0.7%, which suggests that the UK economy is recovering much slower than expected.
* The volume of retail sales is one of the main economic indicators, which is an indicator of the change in sales volume in the context of retail trade. In simple words, this indicator reflects the purchasing power of the population.
Today, we are still waiting for the release of preliminary data on business activity in Europe, Great Britain and the United States for July.
Details of statistics:
- 8:00 Universal time - The index of business activity in the services sector in Europe: Prev. 58.3 pips; Forecast 59.5 points.
- 8:00 Universal time - The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Europe: Prev. 63.4 pips; Forecast 62.5 points.
EU's composite PMI may rise from 59.5 to 60.0
- 8:30 Universal time - Business activity in the UK services sector: Prev. 62.4 pips; Forecast 62.0 points.
- 8:30 Universal time - PMI in the UK manufacturing sector: Prev. 63.9 pips; Forecast 62.5 points.
UK's composite PMI may decline from 62.2 to 61.9
- 13:45 Universal time - The index of business activity in the US services sector: Prev. 64.6 pips; Forecast 64.8 points.
- 13:45 Universal time - The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector: Prev. 62.1 pips; Forecast 62.0 points.
America's composite PMI may rise from 63.7 to 63.9
* The index of business activity in the service sector is an indicator that is determined based on a survey of managers of companies working in the service sector in order to assess the current situation in this sector, as well as possible prospects.
An index above 50 points indicates a positive situation, while an indicator below 50 points signals a deterioration in the situation in the service sector.
• The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector is an indicator of changes in business conditions in the industrial sector in the reporting month. The index is calculated on the basis of monthly surveys of supply managers working in private companies in the manufacturing sector.
An index above 50 points indicates a positive situation, while an indicator below 50 points signals a deterioration in the situation in the manufacturing sector.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on July 23, 2021
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see that the quote follows the area of this week's local base, where the volume of short positions was reduced again.
In this situation, it is worth adhering to the borders of the previously specified amplitude of 1.1750/1.1830, where the most significant price changes will occur after the price has been held outside a particular border in the H4 interval.
Sell position:
Traders will consider this if the price is kept below the level of 1.1750, in the direction of 1.1700.
Buy position:
Traders will consider this if the price is kept above the level of 1.1830, in the direction of 1.1900.
Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on July 23, 2021
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it can be seen that the price area of 1.3750/1.3800 still acts as a resistance in the market, leaving a chance for a change in trading interest. The strongest sell signal will come from the market after the price is kept below the level of1.3725; or else, there will be a prolonged stagnation.
Sell position:
Traders will consider this if the price is kept below the level of 1.3725, which will open the way towards the coordinates 1.3700, 1.3640, and 1.3570.
Buy position:
Traders considered this in the middle of the week, which made it possible to earn a profit on the correctional course. At the moment, traders have already taken profit and are considering sell positions, but their opinion may change if the price is kept above the level of 1.3800 in the H4 timeframe.
What is reflected in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each individual candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative time period: the opening price, the closing price, the maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
Golden Rule: It is necessary to figure out what you are dealing with before starting to trade with real money. Learning to trade is so important for a novice trader since the market will exist tomorrow, next week, next year, and the next decade.
