Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1631 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the euro's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell.

In the second half of the day, we will receive data on the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production figures. These indicators, which serve as sensitive barometers of the U.S. economy, could significantly affect currency pair dynamics. The Empire Manufacturing Index, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflects business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector. Analysts and traders closely monitor this index because it often provides an early signal of emerging trends in U.S. industry as a whole.

At the same time, changes in industrial production serve as an important macroeconomic indicator reflecting the total output of the industrial sector. Growth in this indicator is generally associated with economic expansion, while a decline may signal a slowdown.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1649 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1678. At 1.1678, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1649 and 1.1678 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1626 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1649 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1594 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.