Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1785 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, at the time of writing, the pair has not yet experienced a significant decline.

Data on the growth of industrial production in the Eurozone for February also failed to support EUR/USD. This factor, which would normally act as a catalyst for the euro's growth, went largely unnoticed amid geopolitical uncertainty. Investors, focused on potential risks related to the US-Iran conflict, ignored the positive statistical data, showing a clear risk-averse bias. On the other hand, although European industry showed signs of recovery, it failed to reverse the negative trend. The weak growth that was recorded only highlighted the fragility of the region's economic situation.

The second half of the day is expected to be active in financial markets, as traders will closely examine the release of important macroeconomic data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. A key indicator of the health of the US industrial sector will be the Empire Manufacturing Index report. Any deviation from expectations is likely to have a significant impact on investor sentiment and market volatility. At the same time, attention will also be focused on the NAHB Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders. Positive housing data may strengthen the dollar, while negative signals could raise concerns among market participants.

Additionally, speeches by two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members—Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman—are scheduled for the second half of the day.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1802 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1841. At 1.1841, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after very weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1785 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1802 and 1.1841 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.1785 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1742, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair will return today if US data is strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1802 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1785 and 1.1742 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.